The proportion of council budgets spent on adult social care is set to drop this year for the first time since 2010 – with councils likely to cut services due to funding uncertainty, according to a major survey of social service directors.
A report by the Association of Directors of Adult Social Services (ADASS) found that in 2019/20, the percentage of council funds spent on adult social care is set to drop slightly from 37.8% in 2018/19 to £37.4%.
The report said: “This may be a result of the impact of children’s services overspends and other pressures on council services, and could be an indicator that councils are no longer able to protect adult social care to the same extent.”
The survey received responses from 150 of the 151 authorities with adult social care responsibility (excluding Guernsey, Jersey and Isle of Man).
In 2018/19, councils underspent on adult social care budgets by £98m on a total budget of £14.9bn – following a break-even last year and overspends during the previous three years.
ADASS said: “However, the aggregate outturn figure masks the fact that 57 councils overspent against their budgets in 2018/19.”
The proportion of councils financing overspends on adult social care by drawing on reserves grew from 1% in 2017/18 to 4% in 2018/19.
The number of councils financing overspends from underspending in other departments has increased from 41% in 2017/18 to 51% in 2018/19.
David Williams, County Councils Network spokesman for health and social care, and leader of Hertfordshire County Council, said: “With spending on social care falling for the first time in almost a decade – despite demand rising – it is clear councils are now struggling to protect frontline care services.”
ADASS said that councils could start reducing adult social care services from this autumn without sufficient clarity from central government on future funding levels, according to a survey of social service directors.
The report said: “Setting aside the pressing need for a long-term, sustainable funding solution, unless the sector has some certainty soon about future budget assumptions with regard to continuation of the Better Care Fund and Improved Better Care Fund, winter pressures funding and the adult social care grant, there is a serious risk that some councils will start decommissioning services in the autumn, as they have insufficient reserves to manage a cliff edge.”
The National Living Wage will cost councils in the region of £151m plus at least £297m in further costs in 2019/20, according to the survey.
ADASS said these costs “have not been fully funded in line with the requirements set out in the government’s New Burdens Doctrine”.
When asked for the main cost drivers in unit costs for residential and nursing care in this financial year, 86% of social service directors cited National Living Wage costs, ahead of pay pressures, cited by 68%.
President of ADASS, Julie Ogley, said: “We cannot be expected to keep relying on emergency, one-off funding just to keep services going while not knowing about how much might be available for the rest of this year, let alone next.”
Responding to the survey results, Ian Hudspeth, chairman of the Local Government Association’s community wellbeing board, said: “More than a third of councils’ overall budgets are spent on adult social care, which shows that they are striving to protect this vital service.
“But despite these efforts, the combination of historic funding reductions, rising demand and increasing cost pressures mean many councils continue to have to make significant savings and reductions within adult social care services to balance their overall budgets.”
